KForbesy.ca
15May/160

Defining intangibles

Many of the 15 quarterbacks selected in the 2016 draft have benefited from factors such as parental involvement, family wealth, individual instruction and offseason competition—or some combination that increased opportunity not only for personal growth, but also to be noticed by coaches and scouts along the way. It begs two obvious questions: How much do these factors separate NFL draftees from the rest of the crop? And who is being left out?

How Quarterbacks Are Made, Sports Illustrated

Filed under: draft, football No Comments
7May/160

We’re not predicting games, we’re identifying trends

A passage from an essay on climate change that applies to predictive analytics in general:

People often say that meteorologists' inability to predict weather credibly beyond about ten days bodes ill for climate projection over decades. This misses a key difference between the instantaneous state of the atmosphere - weather - versus its time and space averages - climate. Even though the evolution of atmospheric conditions is inherently chaotic and the slightest perturbation today can make a huge difference in the weather a thousand miles away and weeks hence, large scale climate show little tendency to exhibit chaotic behaviour (at least on timescales longer than a decade).

- Confidence, Consensus and the Uncertainty Cops: Tackling Risk Management in Climate Change, Stephen H. Schneider